Un equipo del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), dirigido por Gabriel Lopetegui, visitó Paraguay del 28 de mayo al 4 de junio de 2013 para analizar la situación económica del país con funcionarios del gobierno y representantes del sector privado. Al término de la visita, el Sr. Lopetegui realizó la siguiente declaración en Asunción:

“Tras contraerse 0,9% en 2012, la economía está repuntando con rapidez en 2013. La producción agrícola, que se vio gravemente afectada por una sequía el año pasado, se ha recuperado notablemente gracias a una cosecha de soja sin precedentes. Al mismo tiempo, el fuerte aumento del gasto público y el relajamiento de la política monetaria han apuntalado el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) no agrícola, que está creciendo algo por encima de su potencial, sobre todo en los sectores de servicios y construcción. El crecimiento del crédito bancario se ha estabilizado, aunque el crédito denominado en moneda extranjera continua creciendo rápidamente. Gracias a los excelentes rendimientos agrícolas y a las políticas macroeconómicas de apoyo, se prevé que el PIB real crecerá 11% en 2013, reduciéndose a 4,6% en 2014.

La inflación, no obstante, ha permanecido sorprendentemente atenuada dado que los shocks de la oferta aún no se han disipado. La inflación se redujo —a menos de 1% interanual en mayo— debido a los precios más bajos de la carne, un fortalecimiento de la moneda en la primera parte del año y un reciente aumento de las importaciones de Argentina, que se han visto favorecidas por un debilitamiento del peso y una frontera permeable. Sin embargo, la inflación núcleo ha disminuido de forma menos notable, a un 4% interanual. Conforme a las expectativas, se proyecta que, a medida que estos shocks se disipen, la inflación repuntará a lo largo del resto del año, a 4¼% en 2013 y 5% en 2014.

The global economy is moving forward, but divergence between countries and regions reflects the uneven progress made toward recovery from the economic crisis, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. Historically high unemployment remains the most serious challenge facing governments.

World real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase by 3.1% this year and by 4% in 2014. Across OECD countries, GDP is projected to rise by 1.2% this year and by 2.3% in 2014, while growth in non-OECD countries will rise by 5.5% this year and 6.2% in 2014.

In the US, activity is projected to rise by 1.9% this year and by a further 2.8% in 2014. GDP in the euro area is expected to decline by 0.6% this year and then rebound by 1.1% in 2014, while in Japan GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2013 and 1.4% in 2014.

“The global economy is strengthening gradually, but the upturn remains weak and uneven,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría. “Supportive monetary policies, improving financial market conditions and a gradual restoration of confidence are at the root of the recovery. Also, the fiscal adjustment of the last few years is beginning to pay off. Several countries are close to stabilising their government debt-to-GDP ratios and ensuring a gradual decline in indebtedness over the longer term,” Mr Gurría said.

Downside risks to the outlook have narrowed, but are still large. Adverse interactions between weakly capitalised banks, government finances and the real economy remain a significant risk in the euro area. Fiscal concerns remain in the United States and Japan in the absence of credible medium-term consolidation plans. Future withdrawal of exceptional monetary policy measures could lead to instability in financial markets. There is a risk that potential growth rates may be lower than currently estimated following the global economic crisis.

According to the OECD Economic Outlook, government policy should focus on measures to enhance growth, make public finances more sustainable and growth-friendly and implement structural reforms to boost investment and create jobs, the OECD said. In Europe, bolder measures to solve the financial and banking crisis once and for all are needed to ensure a faster, stronger and more sustainable recovery. Construction of a full-fledged banking union needs to be speeded up.

The OECD warns governments that urgent action must be taken to reduce unemployment, which has risen to dangerous levels in many countries. Jobs are being created in some parts of the OECD, but more must be done. While labour markets are set to firm gradually in the United States and Japan over the coming two years, unemployment is likely to continue to rise further in the euro area, stabilising above 12% only in 2014.

Youth unemployment needs to be tackled and policies adapted to make sure that cyclical unemployment does not become structural, the report said. Similarly, wider product market reforms - particularly in the retail trade and professional services sectors – offer the best potential for creating jobs.

Fuente: OECD

Technological advances, less costly shipping and trade liberalisation have transformed the way in which companies make products and distribute them worldwide. Governments that become more open to trade and investment, and encourage innovation will help firms better integrate the global value chains that are driving growth in increasingly interconnected economies, according to new OECD research.

The OECD, WTO and UNCTAD were asked to report to the G20 Summit in St. Petersburg in September 2013 on the rising impact of global value chains (GVCs). As part of this process, the OECD is hosting a G20 Stocktaking Seminar on Global Value Chains, organized by the Russian Presidency, tomorrow Wednesday 29 May, where the findings of its analysis on Trade in Value Added (TiVA) will be discussed, as well as the policy implications.

Interconnected Economies: Benefitting from Global Value Chains discusses the challenges and opportunities facing advanced, emerging-market and developing economies as they seek to integrate into the global marketplace.

“Everyone can benefit from global value chains, but we will all benefit more if governments take steps to enhance the new business environment,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría at the OECD Forum in Paris. “It is essential to embrace freer trade and resist protectionism as countries seek out new investment, faster productivity enhancement and competitiveness. Encouraging the development and participation in global value chains is the road to more jobs and sustainable growth for our economies.”

The OECD report points out that the extent to which countries take part in GVCs varies widely. Small open economies like the Slovak Republic or Belgium rely heavily on foreign imports to make finished goods. Large economies, like the United States and Japan, are more active in upstream activities and produce intermediate goods that are included in the exports of countries further down the value chain (Read the 40 country notes).

Services, such as information communications technology, transport and logistics, account for over half of all value creation in GVCs in many OECD countries and over 30% in China. Upgrading the quantity of services and proceeding with its liberalisation would enhance the competitiveness of manufacturing firms and make it easier for them to take part in GVCs. Openness to trade is also essential, as import tariffs effectively act as taxes on exports by firms that use imported components to manufacture goods for export.

Countries that stimulate investment in innovation and intellectual capital, such as design, R&D and new business models, will help their firms move up the value chain.

Another report to be discussed by Ministers meeting at the OECD this week, New Sources of Growth: Knowledge-based capital, finds wide differences between countries in the levels of such investment. Knowledge-based capital includes computerised information (software and databases); innovative property (patents, copyrights, designs, trademarks); and economic competencies (including brand equity, firm-specific human capital, networks joining people and institutions, and organisational know-how that increases enterprise efficiency).

The United States, Japan and Sweden, for example, invest around 10% of GDP in knowledge-based capital, compared to less than 5% in Italy, Portugal and Spain. Some are also more successful at helping innovative firms attract investment: firms that patent their ideas raise four times as much capital in Sweden and the US than in Italy and Spain.

Well-functioning product, labour and risk capital markets are needed. Strong intellectual property rights encourage innovation but the rising costs of litigation are undermining the effectiveness of the patent system in many countries, according to the report.

Tax incentives and loans or grants for R&D boost investment in intellectual capital but are often poorly designed, especially for young firms which are an increasingly important creator of new jobs: between 2001 and 2011, firms less than five years old provided 18% of all jobs in OECD countries studied but accounted for 47% of all new jobs created.

Fuente: OECD