Expertos del extranjero son más optimistas en sus proyecciones de inflación en 2013 que los economistas uruguayos: la sitúan entre 6,4% y 7,8%, según un informe de Focus Economics. Sobre el dólar, creen que subirá más que las previsiones locales.

El informe correspondiente a diciembre muestra que los analistas del exterior esperan una variación de Índice de Precios al Consumo (IPC) superior a la meta del gobierno (de 4% a 6%), al igual que estiman los economistas a nivel local, pero con un rango de previsiones más bajo.

Los expertos consultados por la encuesta de expectativas del Banco Central (BCU) en enero preveían en mediana que la inflación se ubique en 7,5% en el período enero-diciembre, con una respuesta mínima de 7% y un máximo de 8,4%.

En tanto, la estimación más alta entre los extranjeros consultados por Focus Economics fue de 7,8%, brindada por BBVA Research, y la más baja fue la de The Economist Intelligence Unit, que se situó en 6,4%.

Gradual Upturn in Global Growth During 2013

Global growth is projected to increase during 2013, as the factors underlying soft global activity are expected to subside. However, this upturn is projected to be more gradual than in the October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections. Policy actions have lowered acute crisis risks in the euro area and the United States. But in the euro area, the return to recovery after a protracted contraction is delayed. While Japan has slid into recession, stimulus is expected to boost growth in the near term. At the same time, policies have supported a modest growth pickup in some emerging market economies, although others continue to struggle with weak external demand and domestic bottlenecks. If crisis risks do not materialize and financial conditions continue to improve, global growth could be stronger than projected. However, downside risks remain significant, including renewed setbacks in the euro area and risks of excessive near-term fiscal consolidation in the United States. Policy action must urgently address these risks.

Documento completo en: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/update/01/pdf/0113.pdf

Jack Lew’s first act once he becomes U.S. Treasury secretary will be to tell a lie.

On Day One as Timothy Geithner’s successor, Lew is bound to say “I support a strong dollar” to reassure markets that there will be no change in long-standing U.S. policy. Nothing could be further from the truth, though, as the yen trades at 2 1/2-year lows and the world considers a response to Japan’s blitz on money markets.

Get ready for the Currency Wars 2.0. In a world in which growth is harder to come by, policy making verges on becoming a zero-sum game. Officials in the U.S. and China were caught flatfooted by how quickly Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe turned the tables in currency markets with a few vague pledges of change. Rest assured that some big responses are on the way.

“Japan has restarted the currency war by its open policy goal of a weaker yen, which has surprised everyone by its success,” says Simon Grose-Hodge, head of investment strategy for South Asia at LGT Group in Singapore. “No country wants to be priced out of an already challenging export environment.”

Take China’s incoming President Xi Jinping, who is walking into a positively treacherous situation in Beijing. He must act fast to rein in corruption, grapple with an unruly local media and tackle the pollution that obscures the sun and threatens public health. The last thing Xi needs is a plunge in exports as exchange rates move against him. The same goes for South Korean President-elect Park Geun Hye. Expect policy makers throughout Asia to act, too.

Fuente: Bloomberg by William Pesek