En los tres últimos meses, la recuperación mundial —que ya de por sí no era sólida— dio algunos indicios de debilitarse más. Las tensiones en los mercados financieros y en las entidades soberanas de la periferia de la zona del euro recrudecieron, aproximándose a los niveles de fines de 2011. En una serie de grandes economías de mercados emergentes, el crecimiento ha sido inferior al previsto.

Gracias en parte a que el primer trimestre resultó algo mejor que lo esperado, las proyecciones de base revisadas de esta actualización de Perspectivas de la economía mundial llevan a pensar que las perspectivas mundiales sufrirán únicamente un pequeño revés y que el crecimiento mundial se ubicará en 3,5% en 2012 y 3,9% en 2013; es decir, niveles marginalmente inferiores a los de la edición de abril último del informe. Con todo, estas proyecciones se basan en dos supuestos importantes: que se desplegarán suficientes medidas de política para permitir que poco a poco encuentren alivio las condiciones financieras en la periferia de la zona del euro y que la reciente distensión de las políticas en las economías de mercados emergentes hará sentir sus efectos. No cabe duda de que aún predominan los riesgos a la baja, lo cual refleja en gran medida el peligro de que la acción en el ámbito de las políticas se demore o resulte insuficiente. En Europa, las medidas anunciadas en junio en la cumbre de dirigentes de la Unión Europea (UE) representan un paso en la dirección adecuada. El nuevo deterioro sufrido hace muy poco por los mercados de deuda soberana pone de relieve que es prioritario implementar esas medidas a tiempo y seguir avanzando hacia la creación de una unión bancaria y fiscal. En Estados Unidos, es esencial evitar el “precipicio fiscal”, incrementar sin demora el tope de la deuda y elaborar un plan fiscal a mediano  plazo. En las economías de mercados emergentes, las autoridades deben mantenerse preparadas para enfrentar una declinación del comercio exterior y una fuerte volatilidad de los flujos  de capital.

Documento completo en: http://goo.gl/wlkEq

Fuente: FMI

Coming to Terms with Logistics Costs

Transport and logistics costs are high in the LAC region. On a macro-level, the World Bank has estimated LAC logistics costs as a percent of GDP as between 16 and 26  percent compared to the OECD benchmark of about 9 percent. At the national level, average logistics costs represent a share of product value between 18 and 32 percent, compared again with 9 percent for the OECD.  These costs represent a greater barrier to trade than import tariffs and make up a larger part of the delivered cost of food products. In fact, while food import tariffs are heterogeneous across countries and food groups, on average, ad valorem rates have decreased in the region from 2005 to 2008 and currently range from 3 to 12 percent of product value. On the other hand, with respect to transport and logistics costs, the international maritime and road haulage components alone can total about 20 percent of the FOB value of goods if combined. By the  time products are transferred, handled, stored and distributed domestically, the logistics component of the delivered good is often more than 50 percent of the final price to consumers.

Research conducted for this paper shows that the Caribbean, a net food importing sub-region that appears to have particularly high logistics costs, also has the highest import tariffs, punishing its consumers twice. In 2008, import tariffs across all food groups averaged about 16 percent for Caribbean countries, compared to 11 percent for Central American countries and 5 percent for South America. On a weighted average basis, import tariffs on all food groups have decreased with the exception of dairy, which have increased from 2006 to 2008. Such  growth has been driven by the Caribbean countries (primarily Barbados, Dominica, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines) and by Mexico. This situation is particularly worrisome given that in addition to higher import tariffs, the shipping structures of the Caribbean islands provides for very little direct service and low connectivity, which research has shown leads to higher ocean freight rates. Regression analysis has shown that if a country can “double” its centrality within the global shipping network, transport costs would decrease by over 15 percent.

Great leaders are great listeners, and therefore my message today is a simple one – talk less and listen more. The best leaders are proactive, strategic, and intuitive listeners. They recognize knowledge and wisdom are not gained by talking, but by listening.

Take a moment and reflect back on any great leader who comes to mind…you’ll find they are very adept at reading between the lines. They have the uncanny ability to understand what is not said, witnessed, or heard. In today’s post I’ll quickly examine the merits of developing your listening skills. Warning: this post isn’t going to coddle you and leave you feeling warm and fuzzy – it is rather blunt and to the point.

Want to become a better leader? Stop talking and start listening. Being a leader should not be viewed as a license to increase the volume of rhetoric. Rather astute leaders know there is far more to be gained by surrendering the floor than by dominating it. In this age of instant communication everyone seems to be in such a rush to communicate what’s on their mind, they fail to realize the value of everything that can be gleaned from the minds of others. Show me a leader who doesn’t recognize the value of listening to others and I’ll show you a train-wreck in the making.